How to estimate after-repair value (ARV)
After-repair value is what a property should sell for once the work is finished. Most investors estimate it from recent sales of similar renovated homes nearby. Here is the method, a worked example and how ARV feeds your offer.
FlipMetric guide · Reviewed 2026-11-10
What is ARV?
After-repair value (ARV) is the price a property should sell for once the planned renovation is complete. It is the most important number in a flip or BRRRR, because your maximum offer, your profit and your refinance all start from it.
How do you estimate ARV?
- Find comparable sales (comps). Look for homes that closed recently, nearby, in renovated condition, and similar in size, age, bedrooms and bathrooms.
- Work out each comp's price per square foot. Sale price ÷ living area.
- Adjust for differences. An extra bathroom, a garage, a larger lot or a busy road all move value.
- Apply the result to the subject. Average adjusted price per square foot × the subject's square footage.
A worked example
Three renovated comps near a 1,500 square foot subject:
| Comp | Size | Sale price | Price per sq ft |
|---|---|---|---|
| Comp 1 | 1,500 sq ft | $300,000 | $200 |
| Comp 2 | 1,600 sq ft | $312,000 | $195 |
| Comp 3 | 1,450 sq ft | $297,250 | $205 |
| Average | $200 |
ARV ≈ 1,500 × $200 = $300,000.
Which comps should you trust?
- Closed sales over listings. Asking prices are hopes; closed prices are evidence.
- Recent over old. In a moving market, a sale from a year ago may be out of date.
- Close over far. School zones, busy roads and neighborhood edges all change value.
- Same condition. Compare your finished house with other renovated houses, not with fixer-uppers.
How does ARV turn into an offer?
The 70% rule is the usual starting point: maximum offer = ARV × 70% − rehab. With a $300,000 ARV and a $45,000 rehab, that is $165,000. Then check the full profit, including buying, holding, financing and selling costs. The fix and flip guide walks through that calculation.
How sensitive is a deal to ARV?
Very. In the fix and flip guide's example, the break-even sale price was $250,323, so ARV could fall about $49,700 before the deal lost money. If your profit depends on the highest comp, treat the deal as risky and test a lower ARV.
Common ARV mistakes
- Using listings instead of closed sales.
- Comparing across neighborhoods or school zones.
- Ignoring condition. Your renovation has to match the comps you used.
- Assuming a flat market through a long rehab.
Test your ARV in the ARV calculator, and set your offer with the 70% rule calculator.
Questions people ask
Educational material from FlipMetric, not financial advice. Disclaimer.